Tweety: Moo-ah Tehwible, Tehwible HOYREEkanes is Comin’!
InsFans,
If you are new to this list, my condolences. And here, I’m trying to make a good impression, and I start off with a mistake. The headline I meant to run did not quote Tweety Bird. It was actually:
“Modeler RMS Reaffirms Hurricane Loss Projections Through 2011″
A leading industry consultant tells us that its “second expert elicitation,” held last month, says it’s going to be pretty bad out there the next five years. Preeeetttiieee bad.
“As part of our annual review of medium-term landfall frequency in the Atlantic, RMS held its second expert elicitation (see?) in October 2006, presenting a range of statistical models to a panel of seven of the world’s leading hurricane scientists,” said Joshua Darr, director of model management at RMS. …
“According to RMS, a key driver of the current elevated view of landfalling hurricane risk is an increase of more than 30 percent in the modeled frequency of major (Saffir-Simpson Category 3-5) hurricanes making landfall in the U.S., to account for current elevated levels of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin that are expected to persist for at least the next five years. The increased frequency and intensity of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, as observed since 1995, are driven by higher sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and by associated changes in atmospheric circulation.”
I know you can’t get enough, so:
“Darr added that the experts also reaffirmed that the “increase in activity of the most severe Category 3-5 hurricanes will be higher than the increase in Category 1-2 storms, based on the high likelihood of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.”
As Rep. Gene Taylor, D-Miss., were he to turn into a Jewish grandmother, might say: Gvalt! Expoits’ are reaffoimin’ at formal elissiatay…elissytationins …at big conferences that the wind is about to hit the fan.
But don’t worry, this will not interfere with the spring 2007 release of RiskLink and RiskBrowser 7.0:
“While the forward-looking view of hurricane risk will not need to be changed in the spring 2007 release of RiskLink and RiskBrowser 7.0, there will be additional incremental updates for residual demand surge effects, continued advancements to storm surge modeling, and additional vulnerability classes, according to the company.”
Listen, I-Fans. I’m having a little fun at the expense of Josh and Risk Management Solutions Inc., which, from what I understand, is a good outfit. And for all I know, all hell is going to break loose in the next five years.
But here is a question that may show up during the annual ITP party/final exam at the Last Exit. In any case, you will be responsible for this material:
1. Based on the data in the above paragraphs, property insurance rates should:
a) Fall by 30%
b) Stay the same.
c) Fall, rise and fall in co-terminous increments, depending on the residual damage surge effects.
d) None of the above
e) All of the above
f) Rise, really really fast, again.
g) Will there be an open bar?
November 28th, 2006 at 12:58 pm
So I’m guessing that insurance premiums remain the same and we get a 30% retroactive discount for previous years?
November 28th, 2006 at 1:45 pm
yeah, something like that.