Insureds,With Louisiana’s special legislative session on Katrina ending this week, it’s probably a good time to ask whether officials in that state and other leaders in the Gulf are talking to each other.
The leaders mentioned in the above SunHerald headline, for instance, live in Mississippi, which, distressingly, is struggling on its own to solve a crisis of soaring insurance rates and lack of supply. Leaders in Louisiana are doing the same thing just down I-10, of course. For that matter, so are leaders in Florida. I don’t know what’s happening in Alabama, but I do know that Allstate has stopped writing new policies in New Jersey. Obviously, this crisis goes way beyond state boundaries and — I have to say it — beyond the ability of individual states to deal with it.
Even more distressing, I find, is that while thousands of insurance customers have jammed courts to fight for claims on current policies, that issue is not even on the table for leaders in any state.If you look at the link below (don’t bother; it’s not that interesting) you’ll see the story quotes yet another a state legislator who understandably doesn’t know what to do. “I don’t think there are any magic bullets out there,” said state Rep. Michael Janus, R-Biloxi, who helped arrange a meeting on the issue in Biloxi on Wednesday. “But hopefully we can take some steps to ensure that insurance is (a) available, and (b) affordable.”
The story lists ideas that are not entirely promising and involve “hardening” houses to make them more hurricane-proof — that is, something that costs people who are not insurance companies money.
I-Folks, Dick Scruggs has said the insurance industry suffers from an “ethics problem,” while Gene Anderson(1) is convinced that insurance is a “religion” that has seduced billions of people with a false doctrine. ITP is fairly certain that the some ethical obligations have been breached post-Katrina, just as I have never really been entirely sure what Gene
is talking about when he brings up the religion thing.
But ITP is not certain that it’s helpful to think about insurance in any terms other than those of material interests and clout. ITP believes this is how Ed Liddy, Ed Rust and Jay Fishman(2) are thinking, if they are thinking straight, and I think they are.
Right now, insurers have clear incentives to pay as little possible on current contracts and to charge as much as possible on new ones. This is not a radical notion. It’s just life. States’ interests are more nuanced but are basically the flip side: to force insurers to pay what they owe on current contracts and charge a rate homeowners and businesses can afford on new ones.So, who’s got the upper hand?Let’s see: the Mississippi insurance market is $3.6 billion; the homeowners market is 18% of that, $657 million. I-Folks, that is a rounding error in an industry that booked $417.7 billion in premiums in 2005.
But let’s keep going: Allstate’s ‘06 revenue ($35 billion) by itself is eight times Mississippi’s state budget ($4 billion). Heck, I-Fans, Allstate nearly made that in net income in the first nine months of ‘06: $3.7 billion. Allstate spends the Miss. DOI’s budget on sushi. But without a player like Allstate insurance prices in a market like Mississippi’s jump like a Mexican jumping bean. The economy freezes like a box of frozen okra. (I use Allstate because it’s publicly traded and its financial results are more visible. The MS market leader by a mile is State Farm, which just delivered some more bad news. See below.)And that is why I think insurance in the Gulf — and insurance generally — is what my favorite Hungarian billionaire, George Soros, would call an “far-from-equilibrium” situation. An FFES is something that happens right before you crash the Pound Sterling and make a billion dollars. It’s also something that happens in markets, sayeth the dapper Hungarian, “where the participants’ views are far removed from the actual state of affairs, and there is no tendency for the two of them to come together.”(3)
In this case, market participants (except for Insurance Notes![TM] readers) believe a lot things that are far removed from reality, including:
A. That individual insurance markets for 50 states, plus DC and the Five Territories, were created by the Great Insurer of Us All and somehow make sense.
B. That regulators have appropriate authority over the regulated.
C. That policyholders and insurers are equal parties to an insurance contract.
D. That policyholders have a clue about how an insurer has paid on past claims or about much else that would distinguish one insurer from another on claims peformance — the only thing that matters.
E. A lot of other stupid stuff.
How can you tell a FFES? Berkshire Hathaway’s book value has gone up 305,000% since 1964 compared to 5,000% for the S&P 500. Now that’s far from equilibrium
So, leaders, you want “insurance options”? Here’s one: If I’m Mississippi Insurance Commissioner George Dale, I get in the Miss.
DOI-Mobile, which I imagine to be a roomy but not ostentatious Lincoln Town Car, flip on the MDOI siren, and book west on I-10 to Baton Rouge, pick up my La. counterpart, Jim Donelon, safely execute a
three-point turn, checking the blind spot over my right shoulder, head back east, to Tallahassee, stopping off in Montgomery to get Walter Bell, then get Texas Commissioner Mike Geeslin on a conference call because
you forgot him, and while you’re at it, dial up Steven Goldman in Trenton. And now, you’re talking about
a market and some options. Want to exit? How about exiting that revitalized Jersey auto insurance market? In any caes, if somebody wants to leave, or not pay, you are least spared the whole
PowerPoint sales-pitch approach that Gov. Blanco and Commissioner Donelon were reduced to a couple weeks ago (See Insurance Transparency Project here:
ITP and search under “Travelers”).
This was a very opinionated item. I’d love to hear counter-arguments and especially factual corrections. For technical reasons (junky laptop) it’s hard to download some PDF files that help tighten up the fact-checking. This will be fixed soon.
(1) Dean of bad-faith bar.
(2) Chairmen and CEOs of Allstate, State Farm and St. Paul Travelers.
(3) Here’s a primer on Soros’ theory of reflexity, which I can’t entirely figure out, and that’s why I’m me and he’s him.
And this just in from the SunHerald’s Anita Lee via Seawitch:
State Farm drops wind coverage
New customers won’t be covered
click here
And here’s a bonus clip about Oreck Corp. closing a vacuum cleaner plant in Long Beach, Miss., laying off 450, because of high labor and insurance costs. Employment vacuum
Katrina fallout shuttering Long Beach plant
“The other major part of it is the insurance costs have gone through the roof,” (CEO Tom) Oreck said. “It is hundreds of thousands of dollars for literally one-third of the coverage we used to have.”
click here
Thanks to Ida, Seawitch and the Mississippi BizJourno.
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